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Three-Pillar Bridge Policy Cost Estimator

A parametric estimator that prices the Three-Pillar Bridge — Radical Reskilling, Portable Benefits, and Income Floors — at chosen coverage and generosity settings, then maps the bill against four funding-source mixes drawn from Chapter 1's arithmetic.

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Three‑Pillar Bridge
Reskilling
Portable benefits
Income floors

What it does

Maya lost her job to a $180-a-month system, installed on a Tuesday and operational by Thursday. Tom processed his eighth denial letter in a week. The question Chapter 1 of The Bridge leaves on the table for any policymaker is brutally concrete: what would it actually cost to catch them — and where does the money come from? This estimator turns that question into numbers.

The tool prices each of the three pillars at parameters you choose — how many workers you cover, how generously, for how long — and returns an annual program cost, a per-capita figure, and a funding-source mix you can stress-test. It is deliberately built so you cannot price one pillar in isolation: the chapter's central claim is that the structure fails if any pillar is removed, so the estimator forces all three into the same budget and shows what happens when you starve one.

This is not a forecast engine. It is an arithmetic transparency device. Chapter 1 argues that "the fiscal capacity already exists — the problem is political economy, not arithmetic." The estimator lets a mayor, a governor, a legislator, or a skeptical CFO see that arithmetic for themselves: plug in the coverage they think is politically achievable, watch the bill, and confront the funding trade-offs honestly rather than waving them away.

Who it's for: policymakers and their staff, transition-focused economists, foundation program officers, and enterprise leaders modeling unilateral private versions of the Bridge (the chapter notes firms can build portable benefits and reskilling infrastructure without waiting for legislation).

Figure: The Three-Pillar Bridge this tool prices — remove any pillar and the structure fails, which is why the estimator budgets all three together.

Population & scope
The “doubly vulnerable” cohort (Brookings, ch1). Default 6.1M.
Coverage rate (% of eligible reached)60
TAA reached only 6%. The chapter's distribution test demands far higher.
Pillar 1 — Radical Reskilling
% of covered enrolled50
AT&T Future Ready ≈ $10k content‑only; doubled for Singapore CCP income‑continuity. Default $25k.
Pillar 2 — Portable Benefits
% of covered in benefit accounts100
DoorDash pilot pattern; Individual Security Account top‑up. Default $4k.
Optional; Germany/Netherlands decoupled‑coverage model. Default $3k.
Pillar 3 — Income Floors
% of covered receiving floor100
Stockton SEED $500; Alaska PFD ~$1,000–2,000/yr. Default $500.
Funding mix
100% / 100%
Capital income taxation40
Revenue‑per‑employee threshold levy25
Global minimum AI productivity standard15
Reallocated existing payroll/income tax20
Labor‑share decline (erodes payroll yield)10
The IMF point: the payroll base erodes precisely when transition costs peak.
Your estimate appears here

Set the population, the three pillars, and the funding mix, then price the Bridge to see the annual cost, per‑capita figures, and how the bill maps against funding sources.

Operationalizes the The Three-Pillar Bridge framework.
Further reading
From the books
  • Book 2 (*The Bridge*), Chapter 1 — "The Displacement Crisis and the Three-Pillar Bridge," especially "The Three-Pillar Bridge," "Why All Three Pillars Are Necessary," and "Funding the Bridge: The Arithmetic Behind the Policy."
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